Lower percentages are harder to get a high number of results for because you have to wait ten minutes in between for cooldown, but I managed to get 25 rolls at both 30% and 35%. There's a saying about assuming, you know.Īnyway, just after this thread was posted, I did another batch of 50 rolls. With a failrate of between 15 and 25% you fail in about 45% of all tries. Our friend kwhero knows that, he did only test rates above 75%, cause he was to lazy to do a real test, but he still tells his ♥♥♥♥ to the world.įrom 80% failrate on the numbers start to get real, below this mark, as said, they get the more uncorrect the lower they are. Originally posted by TRJoker:The rates are cheating you, the lower the rate is, the more it cheats you. Math is fair but your brain is wired to make it easy to forget and it doesn't help that some things about probability must be counter-intutitive to a lot of people. That's not true though but the whole needing stim packs because the weapon luck was also skewed in that vault and having some guy who was training endurance next door die means I fear the rush despite that being a one time horrible outcome I remember it more vividly. Although at higher levels when the cost of failure contains some pretty hard on dweller incidents I don't rush with a probabilty higher than 33 percents and I know my brain feels like every rush caused mole rats since they arrived before I had much endurance or endurance wear in a shelter. Odds are it's not rigged and if you keep track for long enough you should have about as many successes as it promises. Like if you flip a coin twice while you have a 50 percent chance of getting tails each time in two flips you could easily wind up with 2 heads.Īlthough kwhero is also right as far as successes making a larger impression on your brain. In random probability the expected outcome is evident in larger samples typically.
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